At this week’s SEND & Alternative Provision Committee, our Parent Carer Representatives were surprised to hear a stakeholder once again ask why the number of Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs) is increasing so rapidly in Worcestershire.
For many parent carers, the reasons are already well understood through lived experience. However, there is also a growing body of national research that explains why demand for EHCPs has risen across England. Worcestershire is following the national trend.
EHCP numbers in Worcestershire
- 2021/22: 4,843
- 2022/23: 5,484
- 2023/24: 6,418
- 2024/25: 7,735
- March 2026: 8,623
The increase is significant, but it is not unique to Worcestershire. Multiple independent research projects have reached remarkably similar conclusions about why demand continues to grow.
What does the evidence tell us?
1. Mainstream schools are finding it harder to meet needs without an EHCP
The Department for Education’s Delivering Better Value (DBV) programme consistently found that families and schools increasingly see an EHCP as the only reliable way to access specialist support, funding or the right educational placement.
Across many local authorities, the research found that:
- children’s needs are becoming more complex
- mainstream schools are under increasing pressure
- specialist advice and support are harder to access
- parents often feel services cannot be accessed without an EHCP.
2. Early intervention is not always available or effective
DBV found that many children reached statutory assessment because support had:
- not been available early enough
- not been intensive enough
- varied significantly between schools
- been difficult to access.
When support at SEND Support level is inconsistent, more families require statutory protection through an EHCP.
3. The profile of need has changed
Research consistently shows that growth in EHCPs is concentrated among children and young people with:
- autistic needs
- speech, language and communication needs (SLCN)
- social, emotional and mental health (SEMH) needs.
These areas account for around 69% of new EHCPs identified through the DBV programme.
Demand is also particularly high during key transition points, such as moving to middle, secondary or post-16 education.
4. Children’s needs are becoming more complex
Across England, local authorities report that children increasingly present with multiple, interacting needs rather than a single area of need. This greater complexity often requires coordinated support from education, health and social care, making statutory plans more likely.
5. There is insufficient specialist capacity
Many local authorities report shortages of:
- specialist school places
- resource bases within mainstream schools
- educational psychologists
- therapy services
- specialist outreach teams.
When these services are limited, families often need an EHCP to secure the support their child requires.
What the DBV programme does not say
Importantly, the evidence does not conclude that:
- parents are requesting EHCPs unnecessarily
- EHCP growth is simply due to over-diagnosis of autism
- local authorities should reduce EHCP numbers regardless of children’s needs.
Instead, the evidence suggests that stronger early intervention and more inclusive mainstream provision could reduce the number of children who require statutory plans because their needs would already be met effectively.
Other independent research reaches the same conclusions
The DBV findings are supported by several respected national organisations.
Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS)
The IFS concludes there is no single reason for EHCP growth. Instead, it identifies three main drivers:
- increasing prevalence and complexity of some needs
- improved recognition and diagnosis
- EHCPs becoming the gateway to support that is otherwise difficult to access.
The IFS also notes that although High Needs funding has increased substantially, it has not kept pace with rising demand.
Education Policy Institute (EPI)
Research commissioned by the Nuffield Foundation found that around two-thirds of the variation in SEND identification is explained by differences between schools.
In other words, two children with similar needs may receive very different levels of support depending on where they attend school.
EPI’s annual SEND reports also highlight:
- widening educational disadvantage for children with EHCPs
- changing patterns of SEND, making comparisons with previous years increasingly difficult.
Isos Partnership
Across numerous local authority reviews, Isos consistently found that:
- families increasingly view EHCPs as the only reliable route to support
- mainstream schools are struggling to meet increasingly complex needs
- local SEND systems have become reactive rather than preventative
- confidence in ordinarily available provision has declined.
National Audit Office (NAO)
The NAO has concluded that the SEND system has become financially unsustainable because demand has grown much faster than anticipated.
It highlights:
- increasing complexity of children’s needs
- shortages of specialist provision
- inconsistent local services
- the legal protections offered by EHCPs
- systemic pressures that encourage statutory assessment.
Public Accounts Committee (PAC)
The PAC reached similar conclusions, finding that many families pursue EHCPs because they have little confidence that their child’s needs will otherwise be met. It also identified insufficient resources in mainstream schools and delays within the SEND system as significant contributing factors.
What does this mean for Worcestershire?
The evidence is clear and remarkably consistent.
EHCP numbers are not rising because families suddenly want statutory plans. They are increasing because children’s needs are changing, early support is often inconsistent, mainstream schools and specialist services are under significant pressure, and families frequently see an EHCP as the only reliable way to secure the support their child needs.
Parent carers have been saying this for many years. It is encouraging that national research now provides a strong evidence base that reflects those lived experiences.
The challenge for Worcestershire is not simply to understand why EHCP numbers are increasing – it is to use this evidence to strengthen inclusive practice, improve early intervention, and ensure that children and young people receive the right support at the right time and MEET THEIR NEEDS!
